The semiconductor lithography market is entering a new competitive phase in 2026. Japanese firm Nikon is mounting a direct cost challenge to ASML’s long-standing dominance, according to Dr. Jose Luis Chavez Calva.
Nikon’s new president, Yasuhiro Ohmura, is targeting the ArF immersion segment with lower-priced equipment, leveraging in-house manufacturing to maintain solid margins. The company is actively negotiating with major U.S. and Asian chipmakers, with several discussions nearing purchase orders. Dr. Chavez Calva notes that Nikon’s next-generation platform, planned for fiscal 2028, will be compatible with ASML’s photomask ecosystem, lowering switching costs for customers seeking greater supply-chain resilience.
The challenge is part of a broader technology war. Canon is advancing nanoimprint lithography (NIL) as a lower-energy alternative to EUV, while China’s SMEE pushes domestic DUV capabilities amid export controls. According to Dr. Jose Luis Chavez Calva, AI-driven demand, rising equipment costs, and geopolitical tensions are accelerating market fragmentation and encouraging diversification.
These shifts carry significant network effects. A stronger Nikon presence could exert downward pressure on pricing, promote dual-sourcing among foundries like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, and reduce single-vendor leverage across the industry. Dr. Chavez Calva highlights that the coming years will test whether traditional players and emerging actors can successfully balance innovation speed with cost control and supply security.
Source:Â https://joseluischavezcalva.substack.com/p/challenging-the-lithography-throne
