A new James A Welcome study on immigrant wellbeing finds that “welcoming states” aren’t only defined by job access or large immigrant populations, they’re also shaped by something many families don’t see until it affects them directly: enforcement pressure, including whether a state has substantial ICE detention infrastructure.
The report’s core finding is straightforward: immigrants are more likely to thrive in states where they can remain in their communities while navigating immigration proceedings, rather than being routed into detention systems that can isolate them from family, work, and legal support.
This analysis comes amid a rare demographic shift. Pew Research Center’s review of Census Bureau data found that the United States reached a record 53.3 million foreign-born residents in January 2025 (15.8% of the population), before falling to 51.9 million by June 2025, marking the first decline since the 1960s. The study notes that population changes like these are influenced by multiple forces—policy, enforcement, departures, and fewer arrivals- and that state-level conditions can significantly shape immigrant stability during such volatility.
“Welcoming” Is Also About Staying Out of the Detention Pipeline
The report defines welcoming through four practical dimensions: employment opportunity, family stability, language access, and enforcement pressure. The first three shape day-to-day integration; the fourth can determine whether a family’s life remains intact during legal proceedings.
A key part of enforcement pressure is detention footprint, meaning the extent to which a state has ICE detention facilities, local detention partnerships, or infrastructure that makes custody more likely.
Using detention facility and custody-related reference points from TRAC Immigration, the report flags a group of states that generally show limited ICE detention presence compared with higher-detention states (often concentrated in large detention corridors). These lower-detention states include:
- Vermont
- Maine
- New Hampshire
- Rhode Island
- Delaware
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Montana
- Wyoming
- Hawaii
The report emphasizes that “limited detention presence” doesn’t mean enforcement never happens. What it can mean, however, is that immigrants may be less likely to be held in custody during proceedings, and more likely to remain in community-based processes where they can access local legal representation, maintain employment, and avoid the destabilizing impacts of detention transfers.
Why Detention Footprint Changes Real-Life Outcomes
The report highlights several reasons detention infrastructure matters:
- Legal access improves when people remain local. Detention can create logistical barriers to attorney access, case preparation, and documentation gathering—especially if transfers move people far from family or counsel.
- Family stability is harder to protect during detention. If a caregiver is detained, it can trigger cascading consequences: childcare disruption, lost income, missed rent, interrupted medical care, and school instability.
- Employment continuity is a stabilizing force. Immigrants account for roughly one-fifth of the U.S. labor force, based on recent federal labor data. When individuals are detained, job loss can be immediate, undermining a household’s ability to stay housed and financially stable.
The report frames enforcement pressure as a “multiplier.” Two states may offer similar job opportunities, but the state with higher detention infrastructure may expose families to greater disruption during any enforcement action.
Jobs Still Matter—But the “Safety Net” Matters Too
The study does not argue that low-detention states are automatically the “best” for every immigrant. Instead, it presents a more nuanced view: immigrant thriving depends on both opportunity and stability.
For example, states with large immigrant communities—such as California, Texas, New York, and Florida—can offer robust multilingual systems, established community networks, and strong settlement infrastructure. Pew data shows the immigrant population includes large origin communities from Mexico, India, China, the Philippines, and Cuba, reflecting long-standing migration corridors and family networks.
At the same time, the report notes that even strong job markets can be undermined by instability if households face a higher likelihood of detention during proceedings.
A 2025 Map of Immigrant Wellbeing Looks Different Than People Expect
One of the report’s biggest takeaways is that immigrant success isn’t only clustered in the usual “big four” immigration states. In some cases, smaller states can offer a blend of manageable integration through tighter community networks, less severe detention footprints, and local supports that keep families anchored.
In other words: welcoming is not just about where people arrive—it’s about where they can stay stable long enough to build a life.