Some forecasts predict a gold ounce at $5,000 by the end of the first half of 2026. But that was before the record prices of September. So, is gold at $5,000 by early 2026 possible?
Gold price from $3,000 to $5,000 in 2026?
From $3,700 for UBS
UBS relied on ever-increasing demand for investment gold, particularly from central banks, but also on to a paradigm shift: a stronger preference for gold as a reserve asset, rather than the US dollar, which is considered weakened.
Moreover, the news about the distribution of central bank monetary reserves in favor of gold, which is now overtaking US Treasury bonds, was consistent with the thinking of Swiss bankers.
The forecast was for $3,600 at the end of the year and therefore $3,700 in the first half of 2026. But on September 22, 2025, an ounce of gold was already at $3,700! Forecasters are overwhelmed by this crazy run in the price of gold in September!
At $5,000 an ounce in 2026
Two American precious metals analysts at Bank of America and JP Morgan, were even more optimistic, with a target of $3,675 by the end of 2025, before tipping towards a price of $4,000 in 2026. Finally, Goldman Sachs proposed a scenario, in the event of continued Fed rate cuts, of $5,000 per ounce in 2026.
Gold in September 2025: Records that Change Everything
The first price revisions were published before the first week of September. At that time, an ounce of gold could no longer exceed $3,400. But obviously, since September 4th and the then all-time high of $3,563, the situation has changed. And then the surge recorded throughout September forced financial experts to revise their predictions almost weekly.
A rise in gold linked to the dollar and interest rates
The reason for this rally in the gold price in September 2025 can be found in US monetary policy. Indeed, it was the announcement of a possible interest rate cut by the Fed that caused weakness in the dollar, and therefore a rise in the price of gold.
Investors had anticipated the Fed’s rate cut announcement on September 17, 2025. Gold ultimately didn’t budge much. But finally, a week later, gold’s rise resumed. We also know that pressure for further rate cuts is strong on the other side of the Atlantic. Therefore, further rate cuts could occur by the end of the year.
A Still Chaotic Economic Situation
The other factor impacting the price of gold is the global economic situation.
The implementation of Donald Trump’s new tariff policy could have effects before the end of 2025 on several economies on all continents, including the United States. Here too, investors could choose gold to secure their portfolios.
Central Bank Purchases and De-dollarization
Another phenomenon appears likely to continue until the end of 2025 and beyond: central bank gold purchases in dollars. This amounts to reducing their dependence on the greenback, thus weakening the king dollar, but above all supporting gold prices.
Gold at $4,000 before 2026: A Credible Scenario
With more than four years of continuous growth and solid demand, gold could well break through the mythical $4,000 per ounce barrier before 2026.
Perhaps even as early as December 2025. Will it take a few more months for gold to reach $5,000?
How to use a Gold IRA account to invest in gold
If are an American citizen and want to invest some of your savings in gold, you can use a Gold IRA account.
A Gold IRA (Individual Retirement Account) is a self-directed retirement account in which you can invest physical gold and other precious metals as part of your long-term savings strategy.
Unlike typical IRAs, which traditionally invest in stocks, bonds, or mutual funds, a Gold IRA allows you to diversify your holdings with physical assets that could serve as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
First, you will have to establish a self-directed IRA with an IRA custodian who is a precious metals expert. The IRS requires the gold to be of a certain purity level (at least 99.5% for coins and bars).
Popular approved products include gold coins such as the Canadian Gold Maple Leafs and American Gold Eagles. Once your account is established, you can fund it either by rolling cash from a current retirement account—such as a 401(k) or traditional IRA—or by contributing new money within IRS limits.
After funding your account, your custodian will arrange to buy IRS-approved gold from a precious metal dealer, and the metals will then get stored in a secure, IRS-approved depository.
You are not allowed to physically hold the gold. Over time, your Gold IRA gains tax-deferred or tax-free benefits, depending on whether it’s opened as a Traditional or Roth IRA. This approach allows investors to diversify conventional assets with the stability of gold.