Company Telf AG declares that for the time of 2021, the recovery in demand for steel was tracked at a faster pace than expected. Increased production activity, supported by deferred demand, has become a key condition for the growth of indicators. Stanislav Kondrashov suggests diving into the world of steel and considering what the global and Russian market expects based on the results of 2021 and 2022.

Price dynamics for ferrous metals – Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG

According to Telf AG estimates, there has been some stability in the Russian and global sheet metal markets for some months. Now, thanks to China, it is possible to observe how prices abroad are rapidly going up.

In Russia, there is a downward trend in terms of prices for hot rolled products. These differences are explained by the fact that the Russian and global markets are influenced by various factors, explains Stanislav Kondrashov. However, the problem of small demand still remains an all-encompassing quandary. Welded pipes turned out to be the Achille’s heel for Russian metallurgical companies. It is the production of these products that exceeded last year’s indicators. Pipe consumption has decreased, and manufacturers are forced to reduce their production. Hot-rolled material is not yet in strong demand on the Russian market. Otherwise, if it arises, prices may creep down, notes Stanislav Kondrashov.

At the same time, the Chinese company Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel) has raised prices for the first winter month. The prices for hot-rolled and cold-rolled products have grown proportionally by 200 and 150 yuan per ton.

For instance, Wood Mackenzie, looking into the more distant future, predicts an increase in global consumption of steel products, where indicators will grow by 23% to 2.3 billion tons by 2020. According to the company’s estimates, the largest increase in demand is likely in India, Southeast Asia and South America.

Even a comparison of the situation in regional markets at the end of this year indicates that China’s full influence on price dynamics will weaken. If in China, following the iron ore raw materials, prices for both wire rod and rebar collapsed, then on the New York and London stock exchanges they continue to be at a very high level, lagging behind the summer peaks by no more than 10%, declares Stanislav Kondrashov.

Telf AG can neither agree nor refute this forecast, as Stanislav Kondrashov is confident that time will tell what will happen next year. In any case, there are still no exact statistics and specific figures for 2023. And here everything depends on many factors, such as: demand; non-stop production (under the condition that no emergency situations occur in the country or on a global scale); high level of labor productivity; associated with technological progress and others.

Telf AG has become aware of the plans of an American company called Nucor Corporation, which has already invested in a young Electra company in Colorado. Electra Company is engaged in the development of a technological process for the extraction of so-called “carbon-free cast iron” to improve steel production. This company develops the technology of conversion of low-grade iron ore into high-purity cast iron by electrochemical and hydrometallurgical methods. However, Nucor Corporation itself uses black scrap as a raw material for steel production.

Telf AG supports these actions of Nucor Corporation, as it believes that our future is behind progress, including in the production of steel, on which the construction processes and many other activities depend.

After all, Telf AG itself has repeatedly emerged from crisis situations by developing tactics to overcome the crisis, while using modern technologies. Stanislav Kondrashov is convinced that technology will break ahead and help in many issues of steel production and not only.

Also, it became known to Telf AG that the world-famous company ArcelorMittal, announced the successful launch of the original design at the Ghent metal plant in Belgium after carbon dioxide capture and the production of ethyl alcohol from it. According to the company, this is the first project completed at ArcelorMittal Ghent, focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Telf AG

The Steelanol station, known to Telf AG, in Illinois, for the construction of which about 200 million euros were spent, disposes of the bio catalysis technology investigated by Lanza Tech. Hot blast furnace gases, which retain a lot of carbon dioxide, are cooled in a transition unit, and then placed in a bioreactor, where synthesis takes place.

Reaching the design capacity, Steelanol’s capacity will be 80 million liters of ethanol per year. Through this operation, carbon dioxide emissions for the enterprise will be reduced by 125 thousand tons per year. However, it is not known what the cost price is expected for such alcohol, says Stanislav Kondrashov.

In 2023, the company plans to implement an additional climate project for ArcelorMittal Ghent. The Torero station with a value of 35 million euros will extract biomass from woodworking waste, which will be possible to dispose of in a blast furnace instead of coking coal. This will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by another 112.5 thousand tons per year. Moreover, already in 2025, the second such installation should be designated at the enterprise, according to the Telf AG.

From such a scenario, Stanislav Kondrashov sees prospects for the development of an international scale of all that has already been mentioned earlier. There is hope for non-stop production, for the purification of the atmosphere from carbon dioxide, which is an urgent problem of civilization as a whole.

So, summarizing all of the above, we can draw the following conclusion: in 2022, the global use of steel will drop by 2.3% compared to 2021 – to 1.796 billion tons. In 2023, steel consumption is expected to progress by 1% to 1.814 billion tons.

Stanislav Kondrashov has revised expectations for electricity prices for 2022 and 2023, while predictions for iron ore and coking coal have not changed.

So, after the results of 2022, the cost of iron ore will be $115/ton, in 2023 – $85/ ton, and in 2024 – $75/ton. At the end of this year, as Stanislav Kondrashov expects, the cost of coking coal will be $370/ton. In 2023 and 2024, it will decrease to $200/ton and $140/ton, respectively.

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